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The Global Risks Report 2013 analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia.

 

 

 

This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in China, respondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall.

 

 

The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health.

 

 

In a special report on national resilience, the groundwork is laid for a new country resilience rating, which would allow leaders to benchmark their progress. The report also highlights “X Factors” – emerging concerns which warrant more research, including the rogue deployment of geoengineering and brain-altering technologies.

 

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世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum,WEF)首度針對全球政府風險管理效能排名,台灣在榜上一百三十九國中排名全球第二十三,風險管理效能不如榜首新加坡及第十五名的香港,但領先第四十一名的南韓。

 

 

 

WEF昨公布《2013年全球風險報告》(Global Risk Report 2013),首度要求接受問卷調查的全球產、官、學界領袖,評價各國政府管控金融危機、天災、氣候變遷及流行病等全球重大風險能力,就監控、準備、反應及排解等項目給分,在最高七分、最低一分的評價中,台灣得到平均四點七五分,排名全球第二十三。

 

 


WEF是第八年發布全球風險報告,列出未來十年最有可能面臨的風險因素,前三大與去年一致,依序是收入嚴重不均、長期財政失衡及溫室氣體排放增加,水資源供給危機躍升為第四大風險,取代網路攻擊,第五則是人口老化問題管理失當。
不過,如果以衝擊大小評估,具系統重要性金融機構倒閉、水資源供給危機蟬聯衝擊最大風險因素前二名。

 

 

 

針對收入嚴重不均、長期財政失衡為全球最有可能面臨的風險,政大金融系教授朱浩民表示,台灣政府財政赤字不斷累積上升,加上各項退休金潛在負債,這幾十年來,財政收支情況都不理想,政府應緊縮政府開支、重新調整所得稅制,以降低兩大風險。

 

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參考資料:

蘋果日報
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/headline/20130109/34758544/
世界經濟論壇
http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition
世界新聞網
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/

 

 

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