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站前 英文 | 英國智庫(CERB)：全球經濟體台灣排名20

World Economic League Table 2013 Highlights

• UK retakes its place in Top Ten from Brazil after losing it this time in 2011
• UK overtakes France in 2013 as 75% tax and euro woes pull France down
• India overtakes UK in 2017 to become largest Commonwealth economy
• Indonesia to enter Top Ten in 2022;

The latest edition of Cebr’s World Economic League Table (WELT) for 2013 reveals some interesting moves as the world’s richest powers jockey for position.

The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects changes over the next 10 years. Last year’s WELT was reported 300,000 times around the globe and quoted by governments on three continents.

The world’s top 3 economies, the US, China and Japan, are forecast to remain in the same relative positions for the next ten years. But by 2022 the Chinese economy, currently 53% of the size of the US economy, is predicted to be 83% of the size of the US economy and catching up fast.

One of the unexpected results of this year’s WELT is that Brazil, which just managed to squeeze past the UK in 2011, has in fact fallen back behind the UK in 2012 as a result of the weakness of its currency, the real. It is not forecast to overtake again until 2014. Over the rest of the period to 2022, Brazil moves up another place in the League Table, overtaking Germany and France but being overtaken in turn by India.

Indians, saddened by their cricket team’s loss to England, may take heart from the table that shows the Indian economy overtaking the UK economy in 2017 and reaching no 4 position in the world by 2022.

Russia rose from 11th position in the league table in 2010 to 9th in 2011. In 2013, it starts overtaking large Western European economies and is predicted to reach the no 7 position by 2022.

Fast-growing Indonesia is one of this year’s shooting stars. Currently (2012) the world’s 16th largest economy, it is forecast to rise six places to enter the world’s top ten in 2022. Other Asian economies also move up the ranking. Thailand goes up 6 places from No 30 in 2012 to No 24 in 2022; Taiwan from 27th to 20th and Korea from 15th to 12th.

European countries fall back. Germany falls from No 4 in 2012 to No 6 in 2022 and the UK from 6th to 8th. But the biggest fallers in Europe are France, which is forecast to fall from 5th to 9th, and Italy from 8th to 13th. By 2022, the Italian economy will be close to falling behind economically powerful emerging markets like Turkey and Mexico.

Comments Cebr Chief Executive Douglas McWilliams: ‘The Indians have lost to us at cricket this winter but they are on track to beat us at economics. By 2017 we predict that the Indian economy will be the largest economy in the Commonwealth, overtaking the UK economy.
‘We are beating some other countries, though. We are poised to overtake France either in 2013 or 2014 as the economic effects of President Hollande’s 75% tax policy and the difficulties of the euro drag France down.

‘We have been neck and neck with Brazil for some time. Last year they overtook us; this year we have overtaken them again. From 2014 onwards, however, their more dynamic economy is likely to pull them decisively beyond us.

‘Cebr’s World Economic League Table (WELT) shows the dramatic changes now taking place in the world’s economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even though their growth is slowing, catching up.’

英國智庫「經濟與商業研究中心」（CEBR）最新報告指出，十年後，台灣國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）可從今年的四千六百六十億美元，成長到八千九百四十億美元，幾乎倍增。不過，學者直言，若想十年倍增，平均年經濟成長率要到百分之七，英國智庫「過於樂觀」。

CEBR評估今年GDP規模最大的前卅名國家，十年後其GDP增減狀況。報告指出，台灣今年GDP預估為四千六百六十億美元，排名全球第廿七名，到了二○二二年，台灣的GDP將達八千九百四十多億美元，成長百分之九十一，排名前進七名，成為廿名。
台灣勁敵南韓GDP同樣倍增，從一兆一千多億美元增加為二兆二千多億美元，成長超過一倍，全球排名由第十五名進步到第十二名。

CEBR這分報告，根據國際貨幣基金（ＩＭＦ）二○一一年世界經濟展望（World Economic Outlook）數據資料，套入CEBR的計算模型，以估算出各大經濟體未來十年ＧＤＰ變化。

報告也指出，今年全球前三大經濟體分別是美國、中國大陸與日本，十年後，前三大排名不變，不過，大陸GDP擴大為十九兆五千多億美元，強勁成長一點三七倍，與美國差距也明顯拉近，目前美國的GDP約為大陸的一點九倍，二○二二年時，則縮小為一點二倍。

針對CEBR預估台灣GDP十年成長近一倍，經濟研究院景氣預測中心主任孫明德說，英國人「太樂觀了」， 實際數據顯示，過去十二年，台灣每年經濟成長率平均是百分之四，若十年後ＧＤＰ要增加近一倍，平均每年經濟成長率要到百分之七，「難度很高」。

孫明德說，目前出口、投資與消費都不如以往，未來十年要維持過去百分之四的經濟成長「都有點困難」。
經建會經濟研究處長洪瑞彬說，這分報告顯示，CEBR對台灣長期經濟成長有信心；國外智庫預測台灣ＧＤＰ時，都以美元計算，台灣的ＧＤＰ增減，匯率是關鍵因素之一，倍增並非不可能。

洪瑞彬說，民國七十三年到七十八年，台幣兌美元匯率大幅升值，原本四十幾元新台幣兌一美元，漲到卅元、廿九元兌一美元，光是這五年，台灣ＧＤＰ翻了好幾番。

根據主計總處最新預測，明年台灣的實質ＧＤＰ為新台幣十五兆四千三百一十三億兩千七百萬元，較今年成長百分之三點一五；而經建會所提的二○一三到二○一六年「國家發展計畫」，目標是平均經濟成長率為百分之四點五，經建會坦言是「滿大的挑戰」。

參考資料：

聯合報
http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN2/7599680.shtml
經濟與商業研究中心
http://www.cebr.com/
BBC新聞網
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16332115

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